The coronavirus is spreading from pandemic cities to rural
communities, which make up a large proportion of older, at-risk residents,
which puts pressure on local health care systems and many governors to easily
reopen financial limits and reopen for business.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns
Hopkins University shows that in the two weeks between April 20 and May 4,
newly confirmed Covid-19 cases in non-metropolitan areas outperformed those in
metro areas by 30%.
The virus has spread to nonmetropolitan areas, where resources for testing and medical care are in short supply, creating new dilemmas for state officials who decide when and how much to relax rules at home.
An analysis of the Carsey School of Public Policy at the
University of New Hampshire shows that rural areas often have higher rates of
elderly residents who experience high mortality rates when exposed to
Older people are more likely to experience a more serious
case of the virus, which requires intensive care and ventilator use, says
Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire. Combined
with other factors, such as a lack of access to more advanced medical care and
a higher prevalence of underlying conditions, the virus can cause damage if it
spreads in rural counties.
“If the disease spreads in these places, age will be counterproductive,” Mr Johnson said. “Pile on other factors, which will only make it worse.”
Mr. Johnson used age-specific mortality estimates from new
research on the Kovid-19 pandemic in China. The results were applied to each
county using age estimates from the entire U.S. population age structure and
the Census Bureau. His mortality estimates are based solely on age and do not
include other risk factors such as pre-existing conditions or access to health
Local health systems in rural areas are more vulnerable to
stress than metropolitan areas. According to an analysis by the Kaiser Family
Foundation, there are about 10 times more intensive care beds in metro areas
than in rural areas not adjacent to the metro area.
Nonmetropolitan areas also have older and sicker
populations. More than 26% of those living in these areas are 65 or older,
compared to 21% in metro areas.
Of the 2,200 counties reporting new coronavirus cases for the week ending May 10, 80% supported President Trump in the 2016 election. The epidemic first occurred in urban areas, which voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton. The virus has increased in many places, including New York City, and in the past week, new cases have dropped 12% in Clinton counties.
Someday the coronavirus pandemic will leave a grip on our
lives and we will return to office. The question is, will the office be able to
return when all of this is over?
The changes in the business world are seriously considering
rethinking the space that is central to corporate life. Large cities have fewer
offices and more hybrid schedules that allow workers to be part of a weekly
home and have more elbow room, as companies free up space for social distance.
Smaller satellite offices can also pop up in less expensive areas, as the
workforce becomes less centralized.
In San Francisco, Twitter Inc. This week employees were told
that they could continue working from home indefinitely. Canadian
information-technology provider OpenText Corp expects to close more than 120 of
its offices worldwide. And New York Media Company, Skift Inc., is leaving its
Manhattan headquarters when the lease expires in July.
These amendments could have a profound effect on the
millions of workers who define their work as “office” rounds daily,
the consequences of which are not yet known. Some workers in coastal cities can
take their current wages to live on less. But those workers can easily be
replaced offshore, where costs are even lower. Employees gain flexibility, but
they may lose temporary relief from domestic responsibilities and exchange
ideas in more effective ways. If traditional offices, such as free food and
bike storage, are no longer needed, big companies save on real estate costs,
but they may struggle to outperform smaller firms for the best talent.
The excitement for the new definition of a traditional
office is diminishing, as companies seek new ways to reduce costs during the
recession, which is expected to be the worst since the Great Recession. Many
executives also point to the success of the unprecedented experiment, and how
low productivity is affected after millions of employees in technology, media,
finance and other industries are forced to work remotely for months.
“I mean, if you say three months ago that 90% of our
employees work from home and the company is doing well, I say I’m ready for the
test because the trouble is that Morgan Stanley chief executive James Gorman
said on the bank’s earnings call in mid-April.
The biggest disadvantage of the reimagineing office is the
commercial real estate market and the large institutional investors who invest
heavily in it. Pension funds, insurance companies and other companies have
spent billions of dollars to buy large city office towers in cities. They rely
on constant tenant demand, which now appears to have slowed.
This does not mean that town offices will soon disappear.
Leases are difficult to tear down, and some companies want to completely ditch
the office. There were other periods in the late 20th century when the
center-city office building was mistaken, as some companies saw suburban office
gardens and the decline of the post-9/11 trauma. The centralized office
building has proven surprisingly flexible every time.
Many people associated with the real estate industry still
say they have no choice but to put all employees under one roof. Will
Silverman, managing director of real estate, says, “One of the most
important aspects of American business over the past few decades is
establishing a culture of vision – the idea that proper corporate culture can
make your company a success.” Investment banking firm Eastdill Secured
LLC. “I don’t know how you establish a culture in people who only get
together a few days a week.”
“I think groups cannot solve conflicts and problems on
productivity,” said Scott Wynn, CEO of Polaris Inc., maker of snowmobiles,
motorcycles and other vehicles. He added that 80% of Polaris engineers
currently work remotely in jobs that require cooperation. “Engineering is
a hiccup, we can’t even repeat it here at home. You can’t really share your
screen,” said Mr Vine.
At the moment, he is not re-examining the office space of
the Madin-based Medina. In a video that he shared with 14,000 employees this
week, Mr Vine personally praised the benefits of exchanging ideas. “A lot
of people haven’t been in office for two months and embraced it, but that’s not
something I want to keep forever,” he said in an interview.
Other companies are trying to find a middle ground between
working from home and working from a large corporate office. They are also
looking to open small satellite offices where employees live. He said workers
would like to get out of the house but not start a long train to the city,
which is of great concern as employees prepare to go back to work.
Some brokers and analysts say the epidemic could resurface
suburban offices that have been struggling with overcrowded space for years. The
rise in remote work will ease pressure on the country’s hottest property
markets and lead to economic growth in remote areas.
Opening small offices in leafy suburbs saves considerable
cost. According to Moody’s Analytics REIS, suburban fare is on average 40%
lower than cities.
The congestion in the suburbs has reversed the trend of the
past two decades, with more and more companies moving to city centers to
attract job opportunities. For example, General Electric Company opened its
headquarters in Fairfield, Conn., In 2016 to attract partially talented young
employees in Boston. Announces changing from. Cities have invested heavily in
their centers, built public transportation, and provided tax breaks for
companies. By appealing to the millennial workforce, neighborhoods like
Brooklyn have become workplace destinations.
James Ritman, executive vice president of brokerage Newmark Knight Frank, which specializes in office leases in the New York suburbs, says Sunburn is receiving daily inquiries from Manhattan-based companies that want to open the office because their officers are not trained. I don’t want to take it anymore in the city. “In my 18 years in Westchester and Fairfield counties, I don’t have this kind of speed when looking at crowds from Manhattan,” he said.
Access Management Company Acta Inc. It gives more employees the option to work remotely, and plans to open smaller offices in different cities to allow their employees to enter the workplace without having to travel long distances. This will enable more employees to move to cities where the cost of living is lower, said Armen Vartanian, senior vice president of Global Workplace Services.
Acta encourages leaders to hold daily virtual meetings so
that employees can interact. The company has a fitness app where employees can
login, move and compete with each other and win prizes for crossing certain
milestones. In the long run, the company is considering hosting a speaker
series or learning events to encourage its employees to come together.
“I think companies are going to transition to this
model, where there is still space to negotiate in the workplace, but the real
estate sectors will be cut,” Vartan said.
This is bad news for many big developers. Over the past
decade, these companies have built up expensive new skyscrapers, such as the
Hudson Yards in New York and the Salesforce Tower in San Francisco, which have
pension funds and debt. Between 2010 and 2019, investors spent nearly half a
trillion dollars on office assets in central business districts, according to
data firm Real Capital Analytics. With tech companies moving to bigger and
bigger offices and leasing young professionals to cities, the demand seemed
Now, it’s drying up. According to research firm Moody’s
Analytics REIS, the vacancy in the US office is currently 16.8%, up from 19.4%
by the end of the year. This surpasses the previous record set in 1991, as the
business shut down shutters and workers. Big city office rents are falling as
companies drop workers and sign leases.
A more permanent change to remote work means the office
market will not fully recover from the recession. “This is a national setback,”
Mr. Kalonog said.
In a survey of corporate real estate users in late April by
trade group Core Net Global, 94% of respondents said they would spend more time
working remotely even after the epidemic ended. 69% said they use less than 51%
of real estate in March as a result of remote work.
New York City-focused office owners are already under
pressure as investors are angry over rent payments and declines in property
prices. Shares of SL Green Realty Corp and Vornado Realty Trust have declined
59% and 47% since the beginning of this year, while the S&P 500 Index has
“The supply and demand of office space can change significantly,”
Warren Buffett said at the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. annual meeting earlier this
month. “When the world changes, you adjust it.”
Traditional offices have been around for 1,000 years and are
no longer disappearing, Vernado chief executive Steven Roth said in a recent
call with analysts. He said the workplace cooperation is a “winning
ticket” and some people want to work in pajamas with their children.
“Please don’t be too comfortable working from
home,” the analysts said at the end of the call. “We want you to pay
rent in the office and in our buildings.”